From violent revolt to ballot box: Nepal’s old guard faces a populist surge

Six months after violent protests forced KP Sharma Oli to resign, nearly 19 million Nepalis head to the polls amid party splits, populist challengers, and fears of foreign meddling

Nepal is heading to a general election on Thursday, six months after sudden and violent protests rocked the Himalayan nation and led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. Nearly 19 million Nepalis will vote to elect a 275‑member parliament, with more than 3,400 candidates contesting – at least a quarter of them under the age of 40.

If everything had gone as planned back in September 2025, Oli, who leads the prominent Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), known as CPN‑UML, would have handed over the prime minister’s post to his coalition partner Sher Bahadur Deuba, president of the Nepali Congress party, under a power‑sharing deal struck between the two forces in July 2024, when the previous elections were held.

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Under that arrangement, Oli was to lead the government for two years, after which Deuba would take over. Instead, the planned, orderly transition was derailed by mass unrest: widespread, violent protests that left 77 people dead and injured more than 2,000. 

Triggered by a social media ban, the uprising – quickly branded globally as a Gen‑Z protest – morphed into a broader revolt over a stagnant economy and perceived corruption among the governing elite. The government elected by the people was removed, Parliament was dissolved, and an interim administration was formed with former chief justice Sushila Karki named as interim prime minister.

In the 2024 election, the Nepali Congress emerged as the largest party, winning 89 seats in the 275‑member House of Representatives. Oli’s CPN‑UML came second with 78 seats. The CPN (Maoist Centre) secured 32 seats, while the Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) won 20. The government formed by the two largest parties, the Nepali Congress and the UML, was considered strong. However, the September arson and unrest brought it down quickly, like a strong wind toppling a solid structure in moments.

Since then, there has been a sustained effort to spread negativity against Nepal’s traditional political parties and their leaders. Many observers believe this is a deliberate attempt to weaken established forces.

By the time of the upcoming elections, Nepal’s largest democratic party, the Nepali Congress, had split. In January 2026, Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Thapa and leader Bishwa Prakash Sharma convened a Special General Convention in Kathmandu, resulting in the party’s division. Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has served as prime minister five times (1995–1997, 2001–2002, 2004–2005, 2017–2018 and 2021–2022), did not attend. Deuba and his wife, Arju Rana, were injured during the September violence when demonstrators broke into their residence in Kathmandu.

Thapa was elected unopposed as president of the breakaway faction, which claimed the backing of more than 60% of party delegates. The Election Commission has recognised the Thapa‑led faction as the official Nepali Congress. Thapa, 49, is now one of the key prime‑ministerial candidates, while 79‑year‑old Deuba is not contesting the election. 

While some view this as the old guard stepping aside – one of the possible outcomes of the youth‑led protests – others argue that the protests themselves were driven by external forces seeking to weaken legitimate parties.

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Senior Nepali Congress leader Shekhar Koirala has claimed that the split was the result of a foreign conspiracy. Speaking in January, he suggested that political forces based in Kathmandu, along with international actors, had been actively working to undermine the party. “We went through many visible and invisible internal conflicts during this period,” he said. “Many national and international conspiracies were woven, and we failed to stop the interests of those who wanted to weaken the Nepali Congress.”

Meanwhile, Oli, who resigned following the uprising, was re‑elected as CPN‑UML president in December and is contesting the polls. Although some within the CPN‑UML called for his resignation after the unrest, the dissent proved ineffective.

Oli, in an interview with RT India earlier this year, also claimed that the September protests were “unusual” and organized. “That was not a simple and usual thing. That was unusual, and it couldn’t have taken place all of a sudden. It was organized in a planned way, it seems even at that time and later on,” Oli said in an exclusive interview in January. 

The former PM noted that Nepal’s neighbors Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, also shaken by similar protests, warned his government that comparable unrest could hit the Himalayan nation. “Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were telling us… Leaders were talking that such things would happen, and things happened. It was an attack on our democracy to send back them to poverty,” Oli said.

What lies ahead?

The general election scheduled for March 5 is being watched closely. New and emerging parties – including the Rastriya Swotantra Party Nepal, Shram Sanskriti Party, and Ujjalo Nepal – have campaigned aggressively, building a narrative that traditional parties, especially the Nepali Congress and the UML, have failed and should be replaced. The established parties, particularly the Congress and the UML, appear to be on the defensive.

Several high‑profile figures without deep political backgrounds have been promoted by these new forces. They include 35‑year‑old Balendra Shah, a rapper popularly known as Balen; former journalist Rabi Lamichhane, 51; and technocrat‑politician Kulman Ghising, who is credited with ending the country’s notorious load‑shedding crisis during his tenure as managing director of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). Ghising briefly joined the National Independent Party but left within 12 days and launched his own campaign.

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Balen, nominated by the Rastriya Swotantra Party Nepal as its prime‑ministerial candidate, is contesting from Oli’s own constituency. The former rapper resigned as mayor of Kathmandu in January to run in the election. His political engagement has largely been through social media, particularly Facebook. He has drawn controversy for provocative posts, including comments about burning the Singha Durbar and criticism of powerful countries such as India and China.

Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says the election will be especially challenging for the Congress and the UML because of the rise of populist forces. “Many of these leaders have no clear ideology or political background,” he said. “But people are being drawn to populist narratives.”

Pradeep Gyawali, a Central Committee member of the UML, warned that the surge in populism could be dangerous for democracy. “There has been a long‑standing attempt to promote populism in Nepal,” he said. “As long as political parties were strong, it did not succeed. After the turmoil of September 9–10, populism found space.”

While newly formed political forces have promised to improve governance and eliminate corruption – issues that were at the centre of the September protests – the Himalayan nation of almost 30 million people, sandwiched between India and China, may face more challenges ahead.

“Nepal will have to endure difficult times for some time. The challenges are both national and international,” Nilambar Acharya, former Nepali ambassador to India, told RT. “New power centres have emerged, and their orientation may be more international than national. The question is not which foreign powers have influenced us in the past, but which ones we are now moving closer to. That could change Nepal’s overall direction.”

He added, “Western powers are now more visible in Nepal, and I see Western influence increasing. Nepal lies between two major countries, and we must understand the sensitivity of that position.”