Zelensky’s right-hand man is gone, offering hope for peace

If Andrey Yermak’s downfall allows Kiev to focus on ending the war, he will have rendered his country one selfless service

Andrey Yermak, longstanding head of Zelensky’s administration in Kiev (officially known as the Presidential Office) has fallen.

After being subjected to a long-overdue – and probably not very surprising – search of his premises by the special anti-corruption agencies NABU (think of it as Ukraine’s graft police) and SAPO (that would be the graft prosecutor), Yermak has lost his job.

As sometimes happens on such occasions, he may also have gotten quite drunk. At least that’s how a social media post by him read, where he mightily pitied himself and announced his departure for “the front.” They’ll be so relieved in the cold, wet dug-outs of collapsing Pokrovsk to hear that a pasty desk jockey in habitually crumpled fatigues is coming to their rescue. Not.

While he has not (yet) been officially charged, no one in Ukraine doubts that the trigger for Yermak’s come-uppance is a whole tangle of currently exploding corruption scandals that are so wild they are shaking even Ukrainian politics, as Moscow has noted correctly: There is the Energoatom con (or, as they say in Ukraine, “Mindichgate” – after another very, very close friend of Zelensky, Timur Mindich), where Yermak features as “Ali Baba” in the pertinent wiretaps. Linked to Mindichgate is the “Dynasty” elite real estate (really, palaces) and money laundering scheme. Make no mistake, all of this is just the proverbial tip of the iceberg. In particular, the defense sector will prove a bottomless abyss of literally lethal corruption.

Last but not least, there are persistent and extremely plausible rumors that Yermak has, in effect, obstructed justice by sabotaging the investigations which have now done him in and was about to do so again. But, as Lenin used to say, “who, whom?” Or, as the English say, this time, the anti-graft cops got their retaliation in first.

The second-most-powerful man in the country after past-best-by-date President Vladimir Zelensky – and some speculate that Yermak was already overshadowing his own boss and close partner – was brought down by not one but a whole cluster of sleaze scandals! That, you may think, can’t be topped.

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But this is the Zelensky regime, and yes, they can! This is even worse than it looks at first glance because Yermak was not merely the head of the presidential administration, which is officially Kiev’s single most powerful institution. More importantly, Yermak has also been the central organizer and enforcer of the Zelensky regime as a political machine, sleaze, pressure tactics, purges and all. Beyond that, even Western mainstream media have long picked up on the extremely close relationship between the two men “sleep[ing] near each other” in the bunker under the presidential offices, “unwind[ing] by playing table tennis,” “watching classic films they know so well they can recite the lines,” and working out.

In sum, for the domestic politics of Ukraine, the fall of Yermak obviously means at least three things: First, those out to either topple Zelensky or turn him into – as they say in Ukraine – a “queen of England,” that is, a powerless figurehead instead of the tyrant he is now, have scored a major victory.

That is so, because, second, Zelensky’s apparat is broken; no successor will be able – or perhaps even willing – to replace Yermak in terms of connectedness, embeddedness, reach and influence, and of quasi-symbiosis with the president.

Moreover, third, it is clear that Zelensky is no longer capable of protecting his nearest and dearest. We know because he did try, shielding Yermak from unpopularity and parliamentary demands for his dismissal for as long as he could. Politically speaking, therefore, it is not only Yermak’s blood on the floor now, but also Zelensky’s in the water. And everyone in Kiev – and beyond – knows.

Beyond Ukraine, there are, in order of actual importance, Russia, the US, and NATO-EU Europe. Concerning Russia, Yermak’s last words – in politics – were that Kiev would never cede land not already occupied by Russian troops. In that sense, his absence can only be welcome.

Yet one other thing seems also certain: Yermak’s fall confirms Moscow’s sense that the Zelensky regime is very diminished and may soon be over. That, in turn, may influence the Kremlin’s already much-less-than-enthusiastic willingness to do business, that is, make peace with that regime. It certainly reinforces the Russian leadership’s determination not to accept any compromise that neglects Russia’s key demands: Its forces are advancing – increasingly fast – on the frontlines; Kiev’s politics is a crumbling mess. Why make irrational concessions?

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Regarding the US, the first thing to note is that the Ukrainian anti-graft cops and prosecutors who got Yermak are well known to answer to the US, the FBI in particular. With Yermak being pushed out on the eve of US President Donald Trump’s Ukraine-skeptic emissary Dan Driscoll’s visit, there can be no doubt that Washington wanted Zelensky’s right-hand man gone.

The Americans have done what they always do when push comes to shove, namely asserted their dominance brutally. Zelensky has only himself to blame for being so dependent on them. They may well become his undoing now, as they have before for other puppets in other proxy wars that they got tired of. If so, then this is good news for ordinary Ukrainians. Maybe, just maybe, the ousting of Yermak at this point, when the political battle over a new peace plan is raging, will help end this war sooner.

What about the NATO-EU Europeans? French Centrist party-organ Le Monde sums it up: Yermak’s fall leaves them in a “stupor” while – and surely also because – it suits the US just fine. Le Monde cannot be expected to honestly spell out why, but we can: Whereas the Europeans are losing a key accomplice for sabotaging realistic peace initiatives, Washington is rid of a very poisonous snake in the grass. And don’t miss an important detail: As so often, the self-marginalizing NATO-EU Europeans have been helpless observers. As far as Yermak was their man as well, they have been no more able to save him than his boss and intimate friend Zelensky was. The latter may well wonder how much he’ll be able to expect from such “friends” once his own time is up.

Speaking of which, this war could go on or it could end with a negotiated settlement. Or it could also end with a crushing, unmitigated defeat for Ukraine and its remaining Western backers. Some even suspect that Yermak is lucky – or even surreptitiously happy – to get out before the whole edifice comes tumbling down. One way or the other, if his sordid downfall finally concentrates Kiev’s minds on achieving an end with misgivings before facing collapse without end, then even Yermak will have rendered his country at least one selfless service.